The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be different from the recoveries that followed past recessions, Marci Rossell told AICPA governing Council members.
Economic downturns typically originate in a sector such as housing, finance, or manufacturing and ripple through the economy from there, said Rossell, an economic forecaster and former chief economist at CNBC.
The pandemic recession, however, started as an external shock that quickly moved into the economy. Because it started differently, the typical forecasting road map of recession and recovery won’t apply to this event, Rossell said. For instance, it’s unusual to experience a labor shortage during an economic recovery.
“So now we’re living in this world where, instead of having a typical excess of labor at the end of the recession, in some sectors they have what appears to be a shortage of labor,” Rossell said during a preconference telephone interview. “So all the typical indicators are turned upside down.”
But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to predict what’s going to happen in the months ahead as CPA business leaders plan their post-pandemic strategies. Rossell provided Council members with a series of tips that can help.
By Ken Tysiac – Journal of Accountancy
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